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Closing Bell: Indices revert gains in late trade as Nifty ends below 11,650; BPCL down 4%

Market Close: Benchmark indices ended near day's low after Skymet predicts below normal monsoon due to developing El Nino.

Sensex and Nifty touched record high in the early trade today.

At close, the Sensex was down 179.53 points at 38877.12, while Nifty was down 69.20 points at 11,644. About 998 shares have advanced, 1574 shares declined, and 157 shares are unchanged 

BPCL, Zee Entertainment, IOC, SBI and GAIL were the top losers on the Nifty, while gainers were Indiabulls Housing, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech and JSW Steel.

All the sectoral indices ended in red led by PSU bank (down 2.5 percent) followed by pharma, infra, energy, IT, metal, auto and FMCG.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-indices-revert-gains-in-late-trade-as-nifty-ends-below-11650-bpcl-down-4-3751991.html

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Nifty hits record high: 10 stocks rallied 22-42% as index gained 1,160 pts

The optimism driven by increasing FII inflows helped Nifty50 to surpass its previous record high of 11,760.20 (touched in August 2018) on April 3 morning.

The index took 146 trading sessions to hit new record high of 11,761 on April 3. The rally actually started in February 2019, especially after opinion polls which indicated that ruling party can win 260-270 seats in general elections 2019.

FIIs have bought equity worth more than Rs 50,000 crore since February.

The Nifty50 has added 1,160 points and the BSE Sensex surged nearly 3,900 points since February 19, 2019.

The correction is over for the time being and the market is in uptrend. In fact, we are in a bull run started in 2013, though there were corrections in between. After September-October 2018 correction market nicely bounced back," Ramesh Damani, Member BSE said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

Volatility is always associated with elections which come and go, the market is still in bull run and hope the Sensex will go above 40,000 and beyond soon, he added. However, as the market has rallied more than 10 percent and is at higher end of range, he would be cautious.

Among Nifty50, 46 stocks participated in the rally out of which top 30 stocks gained 10-42 percent.

Stocks that gained the maximum in last one-and-half-month are Indiabulls Housing Finance, Yes Bank, Hindustan Petroleum, Tata Motors and Indian Oil Corporation.

The stellar run was not restricted to benchmark indices only, in fact it spilled over to broader market as well which had underperformed since January 2018.

The Nifty Midcap index spiked nearly 14 percent and Smallcap index jumped 18 percent.

“Fresh highs were bound to happen as the force behind the trend looks intact for the further gains that may push Nifty to touch beyond 12K mark and Sensex beyond 39,500,” Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research told Moneycontrol.

“Lower inflation, lower interest rate scenario, a dovish stance from Fed reserve and liquidity-driven markets, all these factors are favoring the current scenario,” he said.

The rally was across sectors with Nifty Bank, energy, financial service, infra, metal and realty gaining the most (12-20 percent). PSU Bank, the biggest underperformer due to NPA concerns, turned biggest gainer with 27 percent upside since February 19.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/nifty-hits-record-high-10-stocks-rallied-22-42-as-index-gained-1160-pts-3753061.html

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Metals with good amount of long positions built up to see strong upmove in April series

The April series seems to have opened with a huge bout of positivity. With Nifty closer to its previous highs and Bank Nifty venturing out into an unchartered territory, the bulls have all the reasons to be optimistic about the current market scenario.

One sector that is poised to take full advantage of this positivity is metals. The sector which has long been preparing itself for this move seems to be fully prepared to go full-out and perform itself in the April series. The fact that it closed with a big white candle pattern on the first day of April series, with a good amount of long positions built up, is indicative of a strong move to be anticipated in this sector.

In the monthly chart of Nifty Metals shown below, notice the hammer candle pattern marked in the blue arrow which falls at 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/metals-with-good-amount-of-long-positions-built-up-to-see-strong-upmove-in-april-series-3731271.html

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March auto sales may be mixed amid high inventory, but these 2 stocks remain brokerages top picks

Automobile sales in March are expected to be mixed for the sixth consecutive month, citing high inventories, rising ownership cost and deferred purchases during general elections, brokerages said.

Passenger vehicles and two-wheeler sales are expected to be a mixed bag, while the commercial vehicle segment is expected to register weak growth during the month.

In a recent report, Emkay said channel checks indicate rising ownership cost, deferred purchases during elections and selective financing by non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are constraining volume performance across the automotive segments in the near term.

In the last one year, the sector has been worst performer, with the Nifty Auto index falling nearly 24 percent, amid a liquidity crisis and weak festive season. In March itself, the index was down 1.5 percent as against a seven percent rally in the Nifty.

Motherson Sumi Systems (down 10 percent), Hero MotoCorp (4 percent), Tata Motors (4 percent), Bharat Forge (3.6 percent) and Maruti Suzuki (3.4 percent) were top losers during the month.

Emkay forecasts mixed domestic volumes in March, with growth in passenger vehicles but muted showing in other segments.

Motilal Oswal too expects the same. "While demand for passenger vehicles is partially supported by new launches, the same for commercial vehicle has been declining over the past two months due to weak demand from major end-user segments."

Passenger vehicles

Emkay said passenger vehicle volumes are expected to be positive in the domestic market, with nine and four percent growth for Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors, respectively.

But Maruti Suzuki, the largest car maker, is expected to post a 11.5 percent year-on-year decline in total despatches in March due to weak demand trends in the key western, central and northern markets such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh, leading to continued high inventory levels, Motilal Oswal said, adding that dealer inventory stands at 45-60 days.

Two-wheelers

Sales in the two-wheeler segment are expected to be a mixed bag, with declines in Eicher Motors and Hero MotoCorp and growth seen in Bajaj Auto.

Emkay expects Eicher Motors and Hero MotoCorp to report a 12 percent and six percent decline in sales, while Bajaj Auto will post a 16 percent growth YoY.

The research house said competitive intensity has increased as a result of free insurance schemes by Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto.

Dealer inventory days have significantly increased over the past few months and have reached historically high levels. Hero MotoCorp has the highest dealer inventory days at around three months, followed by two months for Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Company, and one month for Royal Enfield.

After the gloom in January and February, Motilal Oswal said key channel partners are indicating weak retail sales across key markets in March too.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/march-auto-sales-may-be-mixed-amid-high-inventory-but-these-2-stocks-remain-brokerages-top-picks-3725911.html

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What makes this smallcap a good value buy?

Himatsingka Seide (HSL), one of India’s largest home textile majors and exporters, draws our attention on account of improving business fundamentals. Conclusion of capex cycle by H1 FY20, higher contribution from branded products, an uptick in utilisation rates and undemanding valuations make us bullish on the stock.

Q3 review

Positives

- Sales grew on the back of higher contribution from branded products (84 percent of Q3 sales)

- Gross and operating margins expanded noticeably because of a good product mix and full benefits of captive consumption (ie. yarn being utilised to manufacture bed sheets)

Negatives

- Forex losses resulted in other income declining sharply year-on-year (YoY)

- Depreciation and interest costs rose significantly YoY due to investments in the terry towel plant

- Tax rate increased marginally YoY

- The above factors led to a marginal reduction in PAT (profit after tax) margins

Why consider investing?

Capex intensity is waning

By September 2019, HSL’s terry towel facility is likely to be set up. Post this, barring regular maintenance capital expenditure, there is no big expansion plan.

Depreciation and financing charges, that rose noticeably in the past 4 quarters due to investments in the terry towel project, are likely to reduce from H2 FY20 onwards. This is because impetus will be laid on debt repayment. Consequently, bottom-line margins, working capital cycle and cash flows should improve.

Utilisation rates are likely to go up

In Q3 FY17, HSL expanded its bed sheet manufacturing capacity from 23 mmpa (million metres per annum) to 46 mmpa. Utilisation levels in respect of both (ie. original and new capacity) are stable at the moment. As the company’s order book (particularly for branded products) grows, there will be a corresponding uptick in manufacturing activities. This, in turn, should help achieve operating leverage.

Debottlenecking of bed sheet manufacturing capacity has been concluded in Q3 FY19, thereby resulting in an increase in capacity to the tune of 15 mmpa. This new capacity will be utilised for manufacturing products that yield lower realisations, implying that sales growth, to this extent, will be volume-driven.

Once the terry towel facility becomes operational, utilisation levels should start moving up too.

Sale of branded products on an uptrend

In 9M FY19, brands constituted about 85.6 percent of the top-line as against 71 percent in FY18. HSL’s own brands are making their presence felt in the financials.

HSL will complete integration of manufacturing processes of the Tommy Hilfiger brand by Q4 FY19-end.

Rights to sell ‘Calvin Klein Home’ products globally have been acquired. Previously, HSL could sell products only in North America.

Since branded products, especially own brands and fashion bedding variants, command better realisations vis-a-vis their unbranded counterparts, HSL’s margins should start moving up gradually.

Risks

To mitigate risks associated with regional concentration, HSL is exploring markets in Europe and Asia. Nevertheless, at the moment, the US market alone comprises nearly 85-90 percent of HSL’s annual top-line. Therefore, Trump’s actions of withdrawing the preferential trade treatment granted to Indian exporters may affect the company’s future revenue visibility.

Indian Rupee’s appreciation vis-à-vis the US dollar would impact product realisations to the extent of unhedged cash flows. Raw material (cotton) costs are not showing any signs of moderation as of now.

Competitive pressure from nations such as Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh continues to persist.

Signs of consumption slowdown in international markets can hit the order book.

Outlook

HSL’s stock price has been on a downward spiral during the course of the last 12 months. This is primarily on account of market volatility and YoY dip in PAT (profit after tax) margins since the last 3 quarters.

After a sharp 47 percent correction from its 52-week high, the stock trades at an undemanding 6.7 times its FY21 projected earnings. This makes it a good value buy.

However, it is pertinent to note that any meaningful re-rating in HSL’s valuation multiples may be seen only from H2 FY20.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/ideas-for-profit-what-makes-this-smallcap-a-good-value-buy-3724171.html

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