March auto sales may be mixed amid high inventory, but these 2 stocks remain brokerages top picks

Automobile sales in March are expected to be mixed for the sixth consecutive month, citing high inventories, rising ownership cost and deferred purchases during general elections, brokerages said.

Passenger vehicles and two-wheeler sales are expected to be a mixed bag, while the commercial vehicle segment is expected to register weak growth during the month.

In a recent report, Emkay said channel checks indicate rising ownership cost, deferred purchases during elections and selective financing by non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are constraining volume performance across the automotive segments in the near term.

In the last one year, the sector has been worst performer, with the Nifty Auto index falling nearly 24 percent, amid a liquidity crisis and weak festive season. In March itself, the index was down 1.5 percent as against a seven percent rally in the Nifty.

Motherson Sumi Systems (down 10 percent), Hero MotoCorp (4 percent), Tata Motors (4 percent), Bharat Forge (3.6 percent) and Maruti Suzuki (3.4 percent) were top losers during the month.

Emkay forecasts mixed domestic volumes in March, with growth in passenger vehicles but muted showing in other segments.

Motilal Oswal too expects the same. "While demand for passenger vehicles is partially supported by new launches, the same for commercial vehicle has been declining over the past two months due to weak demand from major end-user segments."

Passenger vehicles

Emkay said passenger vehicle volumes are expected to be positive in the domestic market, with nine and four percent growth for Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors, respectively.

But Maruti Suzuki, the largest car maker, is expected to post a 11.5 percent year-on-year decline in total despatches in March due to weak demand trends in the key western, central and northern markets such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh, leading to continued high inventory levels, Motilal Oswal said, adding that dealer inventory stands at 45-60 days.

Two-wheelers

Sales in the two-wheeler segment are expected to be a mixed bag, with declines in Eicher Motors and Hero MotoCorp and growth seen in Bajaj Auto.

Emkay expects Eicher Motors and Hero MotoCorp to report a 12 percent and six percent decline in sales, while Bajaj Auto will post a 16 percent growth YoY.

The research house said competitive intensity has increased as a result of free insurance schemes by Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto.

Dealer inventory days have significantly increased over the past few months and have reached historically high levels. Hero MotoCorp has the highest dealer inventory days at around three months, followed by two months for Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Company, and one month for Royal Enfield.

After the gloom in January and February, Motilal Oswal said key channel partners are indicating weak retail sales across key markets in March too.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/march-auto-sales-may-be-mixed-amid-high-inventory-but-these-2-stocks-remain-brokerages-top-picks-3725911.html

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