Gold gains as dollar eases; focus on US-China talks

Gold gained on Thursday, supported by an easing dollar as investors awaited progress on the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade negotiations after reports showed that both sides were nearing a deal.

Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,291.89 per ounce as of 0332 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.1 percent at $1,296.90 an ounce.

"One of the key issues would be the China-U.S. trade negotiations. There is a lot of optimism around the idea that we will see a peaceful resolution and some agreement really soon," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets.

"However, if the trade talks drag out we could see further support for gold because of its implications for growth."

Gold is often seen as a safe investment during times of financial and political uncertainties.

A pause in the equities rally also helped the bullion. Asian shares held near an eight-month peak as investors awaited developments on trade talks.

Negotiations between the United States and China made "good headway" last week in Beijing and the two sides aim to bridge differences during talks this week, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said.

The dollar was trading near one-week low posted in the previous session after data showed U.S. services sector activity hit a more than 19-month low in March and private payrolls grew less than expected.

Market participants are now awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due on Friday, as it would offer insights on the strength of the U.S. economy.

A weak payrolls data could further weigh on the U.S. unit, making dollar denominated metals cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, also fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday. Holdings were at their lowest level since Dec. 17 at 24.57 million ounces.

Among other precious metals, spot platinum rose the most in more-than-two-years in the previous session to touch its highest level since end-June 2018 at $879.03 an ounce.

The auto-catalyst metal was down 0.2 percent at $872.93 an ounce on Thursday, while its sister metal palladium was up 0.3 percent at $1,409.15.

Silver dipped 0.3 percent to $15.09 per ounce.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/gold-gains-as-dollar-eases-focus-on-us-china-talks-3760881.html

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Closing Bell: Indices revert gains in late trade as Nifty ends below 11,650; BPCL down 4%

Market Close: Benchmark indices ended near day's low after Skymet predicts below normal monsoon due to developing El Nino.

Sensex and Nifty touched record high in the early trade today.

At close, the Sensex was down 179.53 points at 38877.12, while Nifty was down 69.20 points at 11,644. About 998 shares have advanced, 1574 shares declined, and 157 shares are unchanged 

BPCL, Zee Entertainment, IOC, SBI and GAIL were the top losers on the Nifty, while gainers were Indiabulls Housing, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech and JSW Steel.

All the sectoral indices ended in red led by PSU bank (down 2.5 percent) followed by pharma, infra, energy, IT, metal, auto and FMCG.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-indices-revert-gains-in-late-trade-as-nifty-ends-below-11650-bpcl-down-4-3751991.html

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What makes this smallcap a good value buy?

Himatsingka Seide (HSL), one of India’s largest home textile majors and exporters, draws our attention on account of improving business fundamentals. Conclusion of capex cycle by H1 FY20, higher contribution from branded products, an uptick in utilisation rates and undemanding valuations make us bullish on the stock.

Q3 review

Positives

- Sales grew on the back of higher contribution from branded products (84 percent of Q3 sales)

- Gross and operating margins expanded noticeably because of a good product mix and full benefits of captive consumption (ie. yarn being utilised to manufacture bed sheets)

Negatives

- Forex losses resulted in other income declining sharply year-on-year (YoY)

- Depreciation and interest costs rose significantly YoY due to investments in the terry towel plant

- Tax rate increased marginally YoY

- The above factors led to a marginal reduction in PAT (profit after tax) margins

Why consider investing?

Capex intensity is waning

By September 2019, HSL’s terry towel facility is likely to be set up. Post this, barring regular maintenance capital expenditure, there is no big expansion plan.

Depreciation and financing charges, that rose noticeably in the past 4 quarters due to investments in the terry towel project, are likely to reduce from H2 FY20 onwards. This is because impetus will be laid on debt repayment. Consequently, bottom-line margins, working capital cycle and cash flows should improve.

Utilisation rates are likely to go up

In Q3 FY17, HSL expanded its bed sheet manufacturing capacity from 23 mmpa (million metres per annum) to 46 mmpa. Utilisation levels in respect of both (ie. original and new capacity) are stable at the moment. As the company’s order book (particularly for branded products) grows, there will be a corresponding uptick in manufacturing activities. This, in turn, should help achieve operating leverage.

Debottlenecking of bed sheet manufacturing capacity has been concluded in Q3 FY19, thereby resulting in an increase in capacity to the tune of 15 mmpa. This new capacity will be utilised for manufacturing products that yield lower realisations, implying that sales growth, to this extent, will be volume-driven.

Once the terry towel facility becomes operational, utilisation levels should start moving up too.

Sale of branded products on an uptrend

In 9M FY19, brands constituted about 85.6 percent of the top-line as against 71 percent in FY18. HSL’s own brands are making their presence felt in the financials.

HSL will complete integration of manufacturing processes of the Tommy Hilfiger brand by Q4 FY19-end.

Rights to sell ‘Calvin Klein Home’ products globally have been acquired. Previously, HSL could sell products only in North America.

Since branded products, especially own brands and fashion bedding variants, command better realisations vis-a-vis their unbranded counterparts, HSL’s margins should start moving up gradually.

Risks

To mitigate risks associated with regional concentration, HSL is exploring markets in Europe and Asia. Nevertheless, at the moment, the US market alone comprises nearly 85-90 percent of HSL’s annual top-line. Therefore, Trump’s actions of withdrawing the preferential trade treatment granted to Indian exporters may affect the company’s future revenue visibility.

Indian Rupee’s appreciation vis-à-vis the US dollar would impact product realisations to the extent of unhedged cash flows. Raw material (cotton) costs are not showing any signs of moderation as of now.

Competitive pressure from nations such as Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh continues to persist.

Signs of consumption slowdown in international markets can hit the order book.

Outlook

HSL’s stock price has been on a downward spiral during the course of the last 12 months. This is primarily on account of market volatility and YoY dip in PAT (profit after tax) margins since the last 3 quarters.

After a sharp 47 percent correction from its 52-week high, the stock trades at an undemanding 6.7 times its FY21 projected earnings. This makes it a good value buy.

However, it is pertinent to note that any meaningful re-rating in HSL’s valuation multiples may be seen only from H2 FY20.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/ideas-for-profit-what-makes-this-smallcap-a-good-value-buy-3724171.html

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Closing Bell: Nifty ends March series above 11,550, Sensex up 412 pts; PSU banks outperform

Market Close: Bulls took control on Dalal Street and pushed the Nifty above 11,550 on the March expiry day.

The Sensex was up 412.84 points at 38,545.72, while Nifty is up 136.50 points at 11,581.50. About 1633 shares have advanced, 979 shares declined, and 165 shares are unchanged. 

Indiabulls Housing, Zee Entertainment, HCL Tech, Adani Ports and SBI were the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers include ONGC, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, Dr Reddy’s Labs and Bajaj Auto.

Except metal all other sectoral indices ended in green led by PSU bank, IT, infra, FMCG, auto, energy and pharma.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-nifty-ends-march-series-above-11550-sensex-up-412-pts-psu-banks-outperform-3714661.html

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Nifty around 11,500, Sensex up over 100 points; IT stocks lead

Market Opens: It is good start for the Indian indices on Thursday with Nifty above 11,450 level.

At 09:17 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 36.12 points or 0.09% at 38169, and the Nifty up 10.50 points or 0.09% at 11455.50. About 510 shares have advanced, 281 shares declined, and 31 shares are unchanged. 

Zee Ent, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Indiabulls Housing, Yes Bank, HPCL, BPCL, IOC, GAIL, Eicher Motors are among major gainers, while losers are Tata Motors, ONGC, JSW Steel, IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, Cipla, HDFC Bank and Tata Steel.

Except metal, auto and pharma, all other sectoral indices are trading with marginal gain.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee opened lower by  24 paise at 69.11 per dollar on Thursday versus previous close 68.87.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-bse-nse-nifty-around-11500-sensex-up-over-100-points-it-stocks-lead-3714661.html

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Nifty Bank at record high; HDFC Bank, RBL Bank hit 52-week highs

The Bank Nifty hit an all-time high on March 27 as the rally in banking stocks continued for the second consecutive day.  The index surpassed its previous record high of 30,008 registered on March 22 and hit a fresh intraday high of 30,129.25 in the morning trade.

The rally was led by IndusInd Bank (up 3.8 percent), followed by RBL Bank (up 1.86 percent), Yes Bank (up 1.5 percent), PNB (up 1.3 percent), and Bank of Baroda (up 1 percent).

As many as two stocks in the Nifty Bank hit a fresh 52-week high. HDFC Bank surged to Rs 2,328.05, and RBL Bank rose to Rs 667.80 intraday on March 27.

Most experts feel that the rally is here to stay and investors can remain net long in the index with an initial target of 30,250. The support is seen at 29,500.

Source:

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Nifty may consolidate ahead of March expiry; HDFC Bank, ICICI, SBI top bets

Since the index is already up for 12-13 trading sessions, one should wait for some price and time correction to take place to initiate fresh long positions, Arun Kumar, Market Strategist, Reliance Securities, said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.

Q) What is fuelling a rally in Nifty Bank and near-term target? Any stocks particularly in that index which are still looking attractive after recent rally?

A) The sharp breakout of NiftyBank index seen on March 5, 2019, triggered bullish signals on a near-term basis. On March 7, the Bank index surpassed its high of 27,754 recorded on January 9, 2019, on a closing basis.

This move confirmed the breakout and attracted long-term participation. Stocks, especially Axis Bank and ICICI Bank, improved the bullish sentiments with their sharp rallies.

Since the index is already up for 12-13 trading sessions, one should wait for some price and time correction to take place to initiate fresh long positions.

HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI and Axis Bank may be considered for going long, post the corrective action.

Q) Mid and small-cap stocks which have been hitting 52-week highs on consistently. Are they still worth looking at?

A) The NSE Midcap Index has consolidated around its long-term average for the past eight trading sessions and the index has moved up significantly after testing its 200-week moving average over the past five weeks.

Whereas, NSE Small-cap Index has been hovering just below its 200-DMA for the past nine trading sessions. It trades just below its 200-week moving average.

From a relative strength perspective (RSI), NSE Small-cap index displays better strength. Considering the behaviour of these indices against the benchmark, one must be very selective and trade in qualitative stocks.

Q) How is Nifty looking on charts ahead of the March F&O expiry?

A) The NSE Nifty50 Index is stretched on the near-term basis and may consolidate ahead of the expiry. Since the index is positive on a medium-term basis, we expect any corrective action to be limited. Ideally, it should hold above 11,250 on closing basis during next week to maintain its positive momentum.

Q) How are Airline stocks such as IndiGo, SpiceJet, and Jet Airways looking on charts?

A) IndiGo continues to rule the roost as the leader in this pack. It is the outperformer. The stock has scope to retain its leadership on a medium-term basis.

SpiceJet comes in as the second-best stock to trade and based on the setups it could generate positive returns on a medium-term basis.

However, Jet Airways has underperformed and there are no immediate signs of reversing this trend.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/nifty-may-consolidate-ahead-of-march-expiry-hdfc-bank-icici-sbi-top-bets-3686931.html

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Closing Bell: Sensex ends higher, Nifty holds 11,500; PNB gains 3%

Market Close: Benchmark indices ended mixed after they remained range bound throughout Wednesday. 

The Sensex was up 23.28 points at 38386.75, while Nifty was down 11.40 points at 11521. About 1104 shares have advanced, 1532 shares declined, and 173 shares are unchanged. 

Indiabulls Housing, Hindalco Industries, Infosys, Dr Reddy’s Labs and Wipro were among major gainers, while losers include HPCL, Zee Entertainment, BPCL, NTPC and ONGC on the Nifty.

Except bank, pharma and IT all other sectoral indices are ended in red led by auto, metal, energy, FMCG and infra.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-sensex-ends-higher-nifty-holds-11500-pnb-gains-3-3669791.html

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PNB climbs 3% after Nirav Modi's arrest in London

Punjab National Bank shares rallied 3 percent to close at Rs 93.55 on March 20 after reports of fugitive Nirav Modi getting arrested in London.

Modi, along with Mehul Choksi, is accused in Rs 14,000 crore fraud involving Punjab National Bank.

According to news agency PTI, the arrest came days after a London court issued an arrest warrant against him in response to a request by the Enforcement Directorate for his extradition in a money laundering case.

He will be produced at the Westminster magistrates' court on March 20.

The ED and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) are investigating Modi, his uncle Mehul Choksi and others for alleged money laundering and corruption to perpetrate the alleged scam in the Brady House branch of the PNB in Mumbai that was unearthed in early 2018.

The stock lost nearly 70 percent from January 2018 to September 2018, followed by recovery in October 2018.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/pnb-climbs-3-after-nirav-modis-arrest-in-london-3673241.html

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Closing Bell: Nifty ends above 11,450, Sensex gains 70 points; OMCs gain

Market close: The last hour buying helped the market to end higher on Monday with Nifty finished above 11,450 level.

At the close, the Sensex was up 70.75 points at 38095.07, while Nifty was up 35.30 points at 11462.20. About 1132 shares have advanced, 1545 shares declined, and 173 shares are unchanged. 

HPCL, IOC, Bajaj Finance, BPCL and JSW Steel were the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers include Maruti Suzuki, Hero Motocorp, Wipro, Bharti Airtel and HCL Tech.

Among the sectors, IT and auto index remained under pressure throughout the day as they slipped 1 percent each, while some buying was seen in the metal, energy, FMCG and bank names.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-nifty-ends-above-11450-sensex-gains-70-points-omcs-gain-3656321.html

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US oil retreats from 2019 high on soaring production

US crude futures eased slightly on March 15 after hitting a 2019 high, as worries about the global economy and robust US production put a brake on prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled down 9 cents at $58.52 a barrel, having hit their highest so far this year at $58.95.

Brent crude futures settled down 7 cents at $67.16 a barrel, below their 2019 peak of $68.14 reached on March 14.

US crude ended the week 4.1 percent higher, and Brent was up 1.9 percent.

"The market is taking a pause as it tries to digest mixed reports that give us different ideas of future supply and demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group in Chicago. "The OPEC-plus meeting could give us a little direction," he said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed last year to cut production, partly in response to increased U.S. shale output.

OPEC+ ministers will meet on April 17-18 to decide production policy.

"If OPEC+ decide to extend (cuts) ... we expect that inventories will continue to draw through at least Q3," US investment bank Jefferies said.

The International Energy Agency said on March 15 that the market could show a modest surplus in the first quarter of 2019 before flipping into a deficit in the second quarter by about 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd).

It said a comfortable supply cushion by OPEC could prevent any price rally in case of possible disruptions and that non-OPEC oil output growth led by the United States should ensure demand is met.

US energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, with drilling slowing to its lowest in nearly a year, prompting the government to cut crude output growth forecasts.

Drillers cut one oil rig in the week to March 15, bringing the total count down to 833, the lowest since April 2018, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely-followed report on Friday.

Oil price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown that has gripped large parts of Asia and Europe will dent growth in fuel demand.

But oil consumption has held up so far.

Crude oil use in China, the world's biggest importer, in the first two months of 2019 rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier to a record 12.68 million bpd, official data showed this week.

Goldman Sachs said growth in global demand for crude in January was "nearly 2.0 million barrels per day, with strength visible in both emerging markets and developed economies."

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/us-oil-retreats-from-2019-high-on-soaring-production-3653221.html

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Closing Bell: Sensex ends 269 points higher, Nifty above 11,400; IT stocks outshine

Market at close: Benchmark indices ended higher but off day's high on the back of last hour selling pressure.

The Sensex was up 269.43 points at 38024.32, while Nifty was up 83.60 points at 11,426.90. About 1172 shares have advanced, 1452 shares declined, and 162 shares are unchanged. 

Among the gainers, Kotak Mahindra Bank rose 4%, followed by Power Grid Corp, TCS, ICICI Bank and SBI, while on the other hand HUL shed 2 percent, followed by Yes Bank, RIL, Bharti Airtel and ITC on the Sensex.

On the sectoral front, IT index has outperformed the other indices with nearly 2 percent gain followed by auto, infra, metal and pharma, while selling was seen in the FMCG space.

Nifty Bank continued its upward momentum as it ended 1.6 percent higher at 29381.50.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-sensex-ends-269-points-higher-nifty-above-11400-it-stocks-outshine-3649211.html

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Nifty forms bearish candle; consolidation likely but 11,383 crucial for bulls

The Nifty50 took a breather on March 14 and closed flat after witnessing a rally in previous three consecutive sessions. The broader markets also barely changed against its previous close.

The index remained in a range of 30 points for major part of the session and formed bearish candle on the daily charts as closing is way below its opening price.

Considering breather after a three-day rally indicates that there could be some more consolidation in the coming session, but the major downside is unlikely, experts said, adding 11,383 is crucial level for bulls.

The Nifty50 after positive opening at 11,382.50 traded higher for nearly one hour and hit an intraday high of 11,383.45 after RBI's latest statement on liquidity infusion in the system. But the index failed to sustain those gains and hit a day's low of 11,313.75. The index remained rangebound for major part of the session and closed at 11,343.30, up 1.60 points.

"Nifty50 registered a bearish candle on intraday charts, suggesting that market hit a pause mode for time being," Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory at Chartviewindia.in told Moneycontrol.

He said, in next trading session if Nifty slips below 11,313 then it shall attract further selling pressure for the day which may then hint at a short term top around March 14 high of 11,383. In such a scenario initial target shall be in the zone of 11,227–11,180, he added.

As twin momentum oscillators, which usually have higher accuracy in catching short term turning points are on sell mode, he advised traders to refrain from maintaining or creating fresh long positions at this juncture.

India VIX moved down by 0.98 percent to 15.12. VIX has been hovering near to 15 but it has recently declined from higher zones which is supporting the overall bullish stance, experts said, adding option band signifies a shift in higher trading range in between 11,150 to 11,450 zones.

On Option front, maximum Put open interest (OI) is at 11,000 followed by 11,200 strike while maximum Call OI is at 11,500 followed by 11,400 strike.

Put writing is at 11,300 followed by 11,200 strike while Call writing is at 11,400 followed by 11,500 strike.

"On immediate basis Nifty index has to continue to hold above 11,280 to extend its upmove towards 11,400-11,450 while on the downside support exists at 11,280 then 11,222," Chandan Taparia, Associate Vice President | Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

Bank Nifty opened positive and hit a fresh life-time high of 29,070, however, it failed to hold above 29,000 and slipped marginally towards 28,800. It later recovered from lower levels but formed a bearish candle on the daily scale. The index closed 38.80 points higher at 28,923.10.

"Now it has to continue to hold above 28,688 to extend its momentum towards new life-time high of 29,000 then 29,250 while on the downside major support exists at 28,500 then 28,388," Chandan Taparia said.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/technical-view-nifty-forms-bearish-candle-consolidation-likely-but-11383-crucial-for-bulls-3647341.html

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Investor wealth up Rs 8 lk cr in March as FII inflows get a boost, Street expects Modi return

The benchmark index, S&P BSE Sensex, fell for nine consecutive days last month from February 7 to 19. Given the somber sentiment on the Street at that time, no one could have thought that the index would rally 2,248 points in the next 14 sessions.

Thanks to the strong rally in past few sessions, the market capitalisation (m-cap) of BSE-listed companies rose by Rs 12 lakh crore as on March 12 to Rs 148.20 lakh crore from Rs 136.24 lakh crore as recorded on February 19 when the index made a bottom of 35,287.

In March alone, m-cap of BSE-listed companies has risen by Rs 7.79 lakh crore.

Both Sensex and Nifty have risen above their crucial resistance levels to hit 6-month highs, thanks to liquidity push from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), and expectations of Modi 2.0 in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to be held from April 11 to May 19.

“Before the Pulwama attack, there was uncertainty about the formation of next government. The way government has handled the situation increased the probability of BJP coming back to power,” Rusmik Oza, Head of Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities told Moneycontrol.

“Market is sensing a BJP victory after the Pulwama event and developments that have taken place since then. In the last three months, activity in emerging markets has improved with improved flows,” he said.

One big factor that is pushing the market higher is massive liquidity push seen from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) so far in March and February. FIIs have poured a little over Rs 10,000 crore in Indian equities till March 12.

FPIs were net buyers (equity and debt) in February as well as January 2019 for Rs 13,564 crore and Rs 127 crore, respectively. Experts feel that with FII flows resuming and domestic investors getting comfortable with the political developments, a host of beaten-down largecaps, mid and smallcaps are doing catch-up now.

“FIIs are continuously buying quality names that we saw in recent block deals of Kotak Bank, Wipro, etc. With stability in INR and supportive macros and micros can expect similar or better flow in the near term,” Yogesh Mehta, VP, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Securities told Moneycontrol.

“Lower inflation, lower interest rates, stronger rupee and stable crude prices are the support for India’s economy whereas global markets are worrisome over the growth slowing down, Brexit and tariff war between US and China, which indicates Indian markets are decoupled due to the election in the centre stage,” he said.

Mehta further added that the recent air strike in Balakot has increased the popularity of Modi and markets have started projecting better performance of the ruling party in the coming election.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/investor-wealth-up-rs-8-lk-cr-in-march-as-fii-inflows-get-a-boost-street-expects-modi-return-3636791.html

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