MCX Support and Resistance Levels

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Market to remain volatile till general election, invest in phased manner in select companies

The outcome of general elections in May is seen as the biggest local event that will set a direction for markets. Until then, equity gauges are expected to react to progress on global developments such as Brexit and US-China trade talks.

Foreign portfolio investors have pumped in a net of $767.77 million into Indian equities so far in February.

In a key economic development, India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $14.73 billion in January after hitting a 10-month low of $13.08 billion in December, data released by Commerce Ministry showed. The deficit was $15.67 billion in January 2018. Merchandise exports grew 3.74 percent on year to $26.36 billion, mainly due to growth in textiles, drugs and pharmaceuticals as well as organic and inorganic chemicals.

The Reserve Bank of India has warned Yes Bank of regulatory action for making public its report on divergence in violation of the confidentiality clause, the private sector lender said on February 15. The private sector lender in a press release earlier this week had said the RBI did not find any divergence in the asset classification and provisioning done by the lender during 2017-18.

In a regulatory filing on February 15, Yes Bank said it has received a letter from the RBI that noted that the Risk Assessment Report (RAR) was marked 'confidential' and it was expected that no part of the report be divulged except for the information in the form and manner of disclosure prescribed by regulations.

"Therefore, the press release breaches confidentiality and violates regulatory guidelines. Moreover, NIL divergence is not an achievement to be published and is only compliance with the extant Income Recognition and Asset Classification norms," the RBI said in its letter. This may adversely impact the stock price in the coming week.

Globally, all eyes would be on ongoing tussle between the US and China. The recent slowdown in China’s economic growth is also a cause of concern for global investors. Growing confidence that the United States and China will resolve their ongoing trade dispute will help boost global investor sentiments. Those talks will restart next week in Washington, with both sides saying this week's negotiations in Beijing showed progress. Clarity on Brexit would also act as a key trigger for investor interest.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/market-to-remain-volatile-till-general-election-invest-in-phased-manner-in-select-companies-3548021.html

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Nifty around 10,750, Sensex falls 100 pts; Yes Bank surges 29%

Market Opens: Benchmark indices are trading lower on the Thursday morning with Nifty hovering around 10,750 level.

At 09:18 hrs IST, the Sensex is down 52.52 points at 35981.59, while Nifty is down 26.20 points at 10767.50. About 304 shares have advanced, 495 shares declined, and 30 shares are unchanged. 

Karur Vysya Bank, IOC, BPCL, HPCL, Reliance Capital, Repco Home Finance, DHFL, RIL, Kotak Mahindra Bank are among major losers, while Yes Bank is up 27 percent, while Tata Motors, L&T are other major gainers.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee opened lower at 70.87 per dollar on Thursday versus previous close 70.80.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-bse-nse-nifty-around-10750-sensex-falls-100-pts-yes-bank-surges-29-3533371.html

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Indices trim gains with Nifty below 10,850; auto stocks under pressure

Market Opens: Benchmark indices opened higher on Wednesday with Nifty trading above 10,850 mark.

The Sensex is up 199.06 points at 36352.68, while Nifty is up 58.60 points at 10890. About 506 shares have advanced, 285 shares declined, and 33 shares are unchanged. 

Sun Pharma, ITC, Cola India, Indiabulls Housing, Jet Airways, ONGC, Bata, JSW Steel, TCS, RIL are the top gainers on the indices, while losers are HPCL, Infosys, Axis Bank.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee gained in the early trade on Wednesday. It has opened higher by 22 paise at 70.48 per dollar versus previous close 70.70.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-bse-nse-indices-trim-gains-with-nifty-below-10850-auto-stocks-under-pressure-3525251.html

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Closing Bell: Sensex ends over 240 points lower, Nifty below 10,850; Sun Pharma up 3%

Market at Close Equity benchmarks closed the session with cuts of over half a percent. The Nifty managed to end below 10,850-mark. 

Banks, automobiles, consumption, and IT were the top losers, while metals and pharma were the big gainers. The midcap index has ended flat. 

At the close of market hours, the Sensex was down 241.41 points or 0.66% at 36153.62, and the Nifty down 57.40 points or 0.53% at 10831.40. The market breadth was negative as 1050 shares advanced, against a decline of 1452 shares, while 131 shares were unchanged.

Sun Pharma, Coal India, JSW Steel and Zee Entertainment gained the most, while Hero MotoCorp, HDFC, and Bharti Infratel lost the most. 

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-sensex-ends-over-240-points-lower-nifty-below-10850-sun-pharma-up-3-3517941.html

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Hindalco Q3 profit including Utkal surges 47% to Rs 713 cr, margin contracts

 third quarter profit (including Utkal) to Rs 713 crore, driven by higher operating income and lower finance cost in aluminium business.

Hindalco has reported healthy 47 percent on year growth in

Profit during the quarter ended December 2017 stood at Rs 484 crore.

Revenue from operations (including Utkal) grew by 8 percent year-on-year to Rs 11,938 crore in quarter ended December 2018.

At operating level, EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) including Utkal rose 3.5 percent to Rs 1,926 crore in Q3 YoY, but margin contracted to 16.1 percent against 16.9 percent in same period last year.

"This is on the back of supporting macros, improvement in operational efficiencies and better realisations. This was despite increase in input costs, mainly of coal and furnace oil," the aluminium major said.

Interest expenses for the quarter were lower by 12 percent to Rs 477 crore YoY, mainly due to re-pricing of long term project loans and loan re-payments.

The company said under its continuous deleveraging focus, it prepaid another Rs 1,575 crore in October 2018.

Hence, Hindalco standalone plus Utkal Alumina net debt to EBITDA (on TTM Basis) improved to 2.36x as on December 2018 from 2.67x as on March 2018, it added.

Aluminium business (including Utkal) during the quarter grew by 12.6 percent to Rs 6,018 crore with its EBITDA increasing 8 percent to Rs 1,286 crore YoY on supporting macros, partially offset by increase in the input prices.

The company achieved aluminium metal production of 324 Kt in Q3FY19, as its plants continued to operate at peak designed capacities, the company said, adding alumina (including Utkal Alumina) production was higher at 749 Kt versus 734 Kt in the corresponding period last year on account of better operational performance.

Copper business revenue at Rs 5,925 crore increased by 4 percent and its operating income at Rs 431 crore was higher by 2.4 percent for quarter ended December 2018.

At 14:38 hours IST, the stock was quoting at Rs 199.65, up Rs 0.30, or 0.15 percent on the BSE.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/hindalco-q3-profit-including-utkal-surges-47-to-rs-713-cr-margin-contracts-3521481.html

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JBM Auto rises nearly 2% after strong Q3 results

Shares of JBM Auto rose about 2 percent in early trade on February 12 after the company reported strong results for the quarter ended December 2018.

Consolidated net profit after tax rose to Rs 19.74 crore, up 14.6 percent from the same quarter last year.

JBM Auto's revenue from operations in Q3 was Rs 429.89 crore, an increase of 8.46 percent from the same quarter last year.

Earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter rose to Rs 4.22 from Rs 3.71 in the corresponding quarter last year.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/jbm-auto-rises-nearly-2-after-strong-q3-results-3517961.html

At 0926 hours, JBM Auto was quoting at Rs 260.85, up Rs 3.80, or 1.48 percent.

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Brokerages press the panic button for Tata Motors; stock hits 10-year low

Brokerage firms such as Axis Capital and Motilal Oswal downgraded Tata Motors post December quarter results which were impacted by an exceptional item of asset impairment of Rs 27,838 crore.

The company had reported a profit of Rs 1,214.6 crore in the same quarter last fiscal. The company's consolidated revenue in Q3 was at Rs 77,001 crore while operating profit was at Rs 6,522 crore.

The stock fell more than 20% to Rs 141.90 in the morning trade on February 8 after opening at Rs 164.65 on BSE. The stock closed at Rs 182.90 on February 7 on BSE.

Reacting to the results, most brokerage firms reduced their earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Tata Motors and reduced their target price on the stock. CLSA, which retained sell rating on Tata Motors, has a target price of Rs 150 which translates into a downside of 17 percent from Thursday’s close.

JLR reported a loss for the third straight quarter as net sales declined by 1 percent on a YoY basis to GBP 6.2 billion, as volumes fell 11 percent on a YoY basis. EBITDA margin shrank 180 bps to 7.3 percent impacted by one-off cost on account of de-stocking and warranty cost.

JLR margins declined on a QoQ basis despite higher volume. The big asset impairment dragged Tata into a consolidated loss. The demand outlook has worsened in recent quarters in China & India.

The global investment bank slashed its FY19-21 EPS estimate by 2-66 percent. The stock will remain weak given insufficient near-term product triggers, said the CLSA note.

The weak sales in China and de-stocking has impacted JLR numbers. The December quarter JLR revenue was at 6.2 billion pounds, while the loss stood at 3,129 million pounds.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/brokerages-press-the-panic-button-for-tata-motors-stock-tanks-20-3501381.html

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Budget 2019 effect: How you can earn tax-free Rs 10 lakh per annum

In a move to give relief to the middle class, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal announced in the Budget 2019 that individual taxpayers will get a full tax rebate for income earned up to Rs 5 lakh.

Previously, the income threshold on which rebate was given was Rs 3.5 lakh. Individuals will now get a benefit of Rs 12,500, up from Rs 2,500 earlier. This will benefit taxpayers only to the extent of an annual income of Rs 5 lakh. The basic exemption limit and tax-slabs remain the same.

Additionally, Piyush Goyal also announced an increase in standard deduction to Rs 50,000, up from Rs 40,000 earlier.

All the tax slabs also continue. In other words, if your taxable income is higher than Rs 5 lakh, you still pay tax at the existing income tax slabs.

To be sure, this is a rebate for those whose taxable incomes are up to Rs 5 lakh. The basic exemption limit of Rs 2.5 lakh - that is, no tax to be paid for those who earn an income of up to Rs 2.5 lakh - continues.

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TVS Motor Q3 profit rises 15% YoY at Rs 178.4 crore; revenue rises 26% YoY

TVS reported a rise of 15 percent (year-on-year) in its net profit for December quarter at Rs 178.4 crore. The company had reported a profit of Rs 154.4 crore during the corresponding quarter of last year.

The company reported revenue growth of 26 percent for the quarter under review at Rs 4,664 crore against Rs 3,703.1 crore last year.

At an operating level, the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) grew to Rs 375.7 crore a jump of 25 percent from Rs 300.5 crore during the previous year.

The operating margin is reported at 8.1 percent against 8.12 percent last year.

At 13:18 hrs TVS Motor Company was quoting at Rs 545.20, up Rs 7.15, or 1.33 percent, on the BSE. It touched an intraday high of Rs 551.10 and an intraday low of Rs 520.60.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/tvs-motor-q3-profit-rises-15-yoy-at-rs-178-4-crore-revenue-rises-26-yoy-3419381.html

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Nifty forms 'Hammer' pattern, ends below 10,800; focus on stock specific opportunities

It was another rangebound session for the market on Friday as traders await more December quarter earnings. The Nifty50 closed lower for the second consecutive session despite positive Asian cues, dragged by select banks and auto stocks.

The index closed below 10,800 levels and formed 'Hammer' kind of pattern on the daily charts (which also resembles 'Hanging Man' pattern) and showed 'Doji' formation on the weekly scale. For the week, the Nifty gained 0.6 percent.

After the rangebound trade for last few sessions, the index is expected to show direction on either side in coming week, experts said, adding earnings could be key reason for the move.

The Nifty50 after opening marginally higher hit a day's high of 10,850.15, but in morning itself, it drifted lower to touch an intraday low of 10,739.40 followed by small recovery from day's low in late trade. The index was down 26.60 points to close at 10,795.

"Nifty50 registered a Hammer formation before signing off the last session of the week as it smartly recovered from day's low of 10,739 levels where as weekly chart registered a 'Doji' with positive close after moving in a narrow range of 137 points throughout the week," Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in told Moneycontrol.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/technical-view-nifty-forms-hammer-pattern-ends-below-10800-focus-on-stock-specific-opportunities-3380821.html

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Sensex continues to trade flat, Nifty around 10,850; IndusInd Bank down 2%

Market opens It is a mildly lower start on the benchmarks on Thursday morning, with the Nifty above 10,800-mark.  

The Sensex is down 49.87 points or 0.14% at 36163.04, and the Nifty down 20.30 points or 0.19% at 10834.90. The market breadth is negative as 312 shares advanced, against a decline of 376 shares, while 37 shares were unchanged.

Consumption and metal names are trading higher, while pain is visible among banks and pharmaceuticals, among others. The Nifty Midcap index is trading flat. 

Tata Motors and NTPC are top gainers, while IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Infratel and HPCL lost the most.  

Rupee opens The Indian rupee has opened flat at 70.46 per US dollar. 

RUPEE OUTLOOK

“The rupee is expected to come under pressure as crude oil prices are rising once again in the international market. Further, now focus would shift to India's macroeconomic data. CPI is expected to remain benign. Hence, there is a chance of interest rate cut by the RBI. But political risk is rising for the market. The Budget is expected to be populist after the BJP's debacle in state elections last month. This might put pressure on the fiscal arithmetic. Globally tension has eased somewhat between US and China...but it is early to say anything. There is a sell-off in the global market which may have impact on the Indian market as well. So, overall the rupee is expected to be driven by global factors and the upcoming political factors in the domestic market. In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade in 69.50 to 72 band,” Rushabh Maru, Research Analyst at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said in a statement. 

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/market-live-sensex-continues-to-trade-flat-nifty-around-10850-indusind-bank-down-2-3372541.html

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2019 is the year for accumulation, probability of big fall low: Narnolia

There are not much of leveraged positions by traders in the market. So probability for any big correction in 2019 appears low. 2019 is more of an accumulation phase for harvesting thereafter, Shailendra Kumar, Chief Investment Officer, Narnolia Financial Advisors said in an interview to Moneycontrol's Sunil Shankar Matkar.

Edited excerpts:

Q. Auto stocks corrected significantly in 2018 and now Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Tata Motors December sales numbers added to investors disappointment. What is your expectation from the space in 2019?

A. December is cyclically a weak month for auto sales. This time it got even worse as dealers were carrying large stocks after poor festival season sales. Rural demand had been a strong driver for auto volume post GST related trade channel disruption but there are concerns building up there.

At the same time, high competition in the marketplace negates the possibility of price rise barring some on account of new emission norms. Going forward auto volume growth will remain in single digits only and pricing growth too will be absent. The saving grace for the sector would be margin revival if commodity prices remain benign.

Q. Do you foresee any big correction in 2019 after a positive close in 2018? What risks should investors stay wary of in 2019?

A. There are steady domestic inflows through mutual fund routes and that gives stability to this market. This fresh buying by retail investors is large enough to negate any sells that may be triggered by foreign investors on account of global concern in 2019.

Also, there are not much of leveraged positions by traders in the market. So probability for any big correction in 2019 appears low. Our base hypothesis for 2019 is that the volatility will fall in the second half of the calendar year and return would be benign but positive. Our near-term target for Nifty is 11,800. 2019 is more of an accumulation phase for harvesting thereafter.

Q. Analysts suggest public capex could continue next year due to general elections but private capex pickup will take time. What is your take on capex?

A. We are not seeing any such incrementally large move this time. The government would be tilting more towards some direct transfer scheme to appease voters than improving sentiments using infra capex.

Private capex is surely in a take-off mode as capacity utilisation has improved and post demonetisation and GST implementation related initial weakness, demand outlook is again improving.

Q. Which among largecap, midcap and smallcap will do good in 2019?

A. 2019 will prove to be a very neutral year in terms of various sub-segments of the market. Earnings growth of various cap, sector or themes will be very similar in 2019. Valuation differential, too, has narrowed for various sub-segments of the market.

And these two factors that mean that portfolio return this year would be more a function of stock selection skill than the exposure to a particular segment.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/probability-for-big-fall-in-2019-appears-low-bet-on-3-largecaps-2-midcaps-for-15-28-short-term-return-3368111.html

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NCDEX Support and Resistance Level

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Flat start on D-Street, Nifty below 10,800; Bank of Baroda up 3% on merger announcement

Market opens Equities have begun the day on a flat note, with the Nifty trading below 10,800. 

The Sensex is up 28.52 points or 0.08% at 35920.04, while the Nifty is down 2.20 points or 0.02% at 10790.30. The market breadth is negative as 268 shares advanced, against a decline of 139 shares, while 31 shares were unchanged.

Wipro, Sun Pharma, Coal India and Titan are the top gainers, while ONGC, TCS, and HPCL lost the most. 

Among sectors, there is a flat trend across all names. Pain is visible among infrastructure and metals. 

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-share-market-live-updates-bse-nse-flat-start-on-d-street-nifty-below-10800-bank-of-baroda-up-3-on-merger-announcement-3349001.html

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MCX SUpport and Resistance Level

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