Sensex back above 38K: Here’s how you can allocate Rs 10 lakh right now

It is not the time to invest because of the massive up move we saw in the last few days. The market might be overvalued right now. If these are your thoughts, rest assured you are not alone.

History suggests that retail investors joined the rally near highs and booked profits or closed positions when the time came to add positions. Well, the market is certainly not at its peak but the risk-to-reward ratio might have come down at least for the near term.

But, if you plan to stay in the market for the long term – the time is still right, suggest experts, and efficient portfolio allocation would be the key for wealth generation.

The market has sprinted in March to reclaim lost glory as Sensex and Nifty both are above crucial resistance levels.

The S&P BSE Sensex has rallied 2,157 points, or about 6 percent, so far in March while Nifty50 has registered a vertical climb of 634 points, or 5.8 percent.

So, what fuelled the rally? Well, a host of global as well as domestic factors led to strong risk-on sentiment towards equities. The gush of liquidity from foreign institutional investors of about Rs 19,000 crores has been the major factor driving the rally.

“Weakness in the US dollar is normally positive for emerging market inflows and India has got more than the fair share of foreign inflows due to improving macro scenario and market sentiments,” Gaurav Dua, head of research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas told Moneycontrol.

“Recent events have increased the probability of the NDA government gaining higher than earlier expected seats in the forthcoming elections boosting market sentiment. The rally is seen across financial markets - equities, bond and appreciation in the rupee despite the rising fears of fiscal slippages,” he said.

Time to put additional funds?

Experts feel that the time is fairly right for investors to get into market and dips, if any, should be used for making a diversified portfolio which leads to long-term wealth creation.

Here are views from various experts on allocation if you are looking to invest right now. We have taken Rs 10 lakh as investment corpus:

“The strategy at the current phase should be focused towards having a proper balance across different asset classes. And therefore, by keeping a long-term view, an investor can allocate 40 percent of total amount, say Rs 10 lakhs, in quality large-cap companies coupled with a marginal allocation of 10 percent in midcap/small cap companies which have to be backed by decent valuation,” Dinesh Rohira. Founder & CEO at 5nance.com told Moneycontrol.

“It is also practical to allocate 30-40 percent of overall allocation in debt instrument with short-to-medium maturity papers given a possible pause in interest rate regime going forward, and remaining 10 percent to be allocated in gold or gold funds,” he said.

He further added that while investing in equity, one should follow a staggered approach and gradually increase the allocation once the market stabilizes in a fair trend.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/sensex-back-above-38k-heres-how-you-can-allocate-rs-10-lakh-right-now-3655141.html

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Opening Bell

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US oil retreats from 2019 high on soaring production

US crude futures eased slightly on March 15 after hitting a 2019 high, as worries about the global economy and robust US production put a brake on prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled down 9 cents at $58.52 a barrel, having hit their highest so far this year at $58.95.

Brent crude futures settled down 7 cents at $67.16 a barrel, below their 2019 peak of $68.14 reached on March 14.

US crude ended the week 4.1 percent higher, and Brent was up 1.9 percent.

"The market is taking a pause as it tries to digest mixed reports that give us different ideas of future supply and demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group in Chicago. "The OPEC-plus meeting could give us a little direction," he said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed last year to cut production, partly in response to increased U.S. shale output.

OPEC+ ministers will meet on April 17-18 to decide production policy.

"If OPEC+ decide to extend (cuts) ... we expect that inventories will continue to draw through at least Q3," US investment bank Jefferies said.

The International Energy Agency said on March 15 that the market could show a modest surplus in the first quarter of 2019 before flipping into a deficit in the second quarter by about 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd).

It said a comfortable supply cushion by OPEC could prevent any price rally in case of possible disruptions and that non-OPEC oil output growth led by the United States should ensure demand is met.

US energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, with drilling slowing to its lowest in nearly a year, prompting the government to cut crude output growth forecasts.

Drillers cut one oil rig in the week to March 15, bringing the total count down to 833, the lowest since April 2018, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely-followed report on Friday.

Oil price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown that has gripped large parts of Asia and Europe will dent growth in fuel demand.

But oil consumption has held up so far.

Crude oil use in China, the world's biggest importer, in the first two months of 2019 rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier to a record 12.68 million bpd, official data showed this week.

Goldman Sachs said growth in global demand for crude in January was "nearly 2.0 million barrels per day, with strength visible in both emerging markets and developed economies."

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/us-oil-retreats-from-2019-high-on-soaring-production-3653221.html

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Closing Bell: Sensex ends 269 points higher, Nifty above 11,400; IT stocks outshine

Market at close: Benchmark indices ended higher but off day's high on the back of last hour selling pressure.

The Sensex was up 269.43 points at 38024.32, while Nifty was up 83.60 points at 11,426.90. About 1172 shares have advanced, 1452 shares declined, and 162 shares are unchanged. 

Among the gainers, Kotak Mahindra Bank rose 4%, followed by Power Grid Corp, TCS, ICICI Bank and SBI, while on the other hand HUL shed 2 percent, followed by Yes Bank, RIL, Bharti Airtel and ITC on the Sensex.

On the sectoral front, IT index has outperformed the other indices with nearly 2 percent gain followed by auto, infra, metal and pharma, while selling was seen in the FMCG space.

Nifty Bank continued its upward momentum as it ended 1.6 percent higher at 29381.50.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-sensex-ends-269-points-higher-nifty-above-11400-it-stocks-outshine-3649211.html

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Bank Nifty gains 10% in March: Here's what is driving the rally in banking stocks

Banking and financial services stocks have been key drivers of the current rally that has led benchmark indices to fresh six-month highs. The up move has been fuelled by hopes of Modi's return at the Centre and renewed FII inflow.

Bank Nifty has rallied 10 percent in March so far and financial services index has climbed around 8 percent in comparison to Nifty's over 5 percent gain.

Index constituents Punjab National Bank, Bank Of Baroda, IndusInd Bank, IDFC First Bank, ICICI Bank, RBL Bank and SBI have rallied 10-20 percent during the current month.

Meanwhile, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank and Axis Bank have gained 5-9 percent.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/bank-nifty-gains-10-in-march-heres-what-is-driving-the-rally-in-banking-stocks-3649921.html

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MCX Support and Resistance Level

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Sensex opens more than 100 pts higher, Nifty around 11,400; Coal India falls

Market Opens: It is a strong start for the Indian indices on the last day of the week with Nifty around 11,400 level.

The Sensex is up 165.79 points at 37920.68, while Nifty is up 51.10 points at 11394.40. About 528 shares have advanced, 171 shares declined, and 33 shares are unchanged. 

Tech Mahindra, Indiabulls Housing, Gail, Eicher Motors, Dr Reddy's Lab, Kotak Mahindra, JSW Steel are the gainers on the indices, while losers led by Coal India, Bajaj Auro and UltraTEch Cement.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee opened flat at 69.33 per dollar on Friday versus 69.35 yesterday.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-bse-nse-sensex-opens-more-than-100-pts-higher-nifty-crosses-11400-coal-india-falls-3649211.html

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