Closing Bell

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2019 is the year for accumulation, probability of big fall low: Narnolia

There are not much of leveraged positions by traders in the market. So probability for any big correction in 2019 appears low. 2019 is more of an accumulation phase for harvesting thereafter, Shailendra Kumar, Chief Investment Officer, Narnolia Financial Advisors said in an interview to Moneycontrol's Sunil Shankar Matkar.

Edited excerpts:

Q. Auto stocks corrected significantly in 2018 and now Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Tata Motors December sales numbers added to investors disappointment. What is your expectation from the space in 2019?

A. December is cyclically a weak month for auto sales. This time it got even worse as dealers were carrying large stocks after poor festival season sales. Rural demand had been a strong driver for auto volume post GST related trade channel disruption but there are concerns building up there.

At the same time, high competition in the marketplace negates the possibility of price rise barring some on account of new emission norms. Going forward auto volume growth will remain in single digits only and pricing growth too will be absent. The saving grace for the sector would be margin revival if commodity prices remain benign.

Q. Do you foresee any big correction in 2019 after a positive close in 2018? What risks should investors stay wary of in 2019?

A. There are steady domestic inflows through mutual fund routes and that gives stability to this market. This fresh buying by retail investors is large enough to negate any sells that may be triggered by foreign investors on account of global concern in 2019.

Also, there are not much of leveraged positions by traders in the market. So probability for any big correction in 2019 appears low. Our base hypothesis for 2019 is that the volatility will fall in the second half of the calendar year and return would be benign but positive. Our near-term target for Nifty is 11,800. 2019 is more of an accumulation phase for harvesting thereafter.

Q. Analysts suggest public capex could continue next year due to general elections but private capex pickup will take time. What is your take on capex?

A. We are not seeing any such incrementally large move this time. The government would be tilting more towards some direct transfer scheme to appease voters than improving sentiments using infra capex.

Private capex is surely in a take-off mode as capacity utilisation has improved and post demonetisation and GST implementation related initial weakness, demand outlook is again improving.

Q. Which among largecap, midcap and smallcap will do good in 2019?

A. 2019 will prove to be a very neutral year in terms of various sub-segments of the market. Earnings growth of various cap, sector or themes will be very similar in 2019. Valuation differential, too, has narrowed for various sub-segments of the market.

And these two factors that mean that portfolio return this year would be more a function of stock selection skill than the exposure to a particular segment.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/probability-for-big-fall-in-2019-appears-low-bet-on-3-largecaps-2-midcaps-for-15-28-short-term-return-3368111.html

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MCX Support and Resistance level

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Sensex jumps over 200 points at open, Nifty above 10,850; Infosys up 3%

Market opens The market has begun the day on a strong note, with the Sensex jumping over 200 points up. 

The Sensex is up 210.98 points or 0.59% at 36191.91, and the Nifty up 54.10 points or 0.50% at 10856.30. The market breadth is positive as 330 shares advanced, against a decline of 109 shares, while 30 shares were unchanged.

Banks, automobiles and pharmaceutical sectors are gaining the most, while the Nifty Midcap index is higher by half a percent. 

Infosys, Tata Motors, and Bharti Airtel are the top gainers, while Tata Steel and Eicher Motors have lost the most. 

Rupee opens The Indian rupee opened higher by 15 paise at 70.05 per dollar on Wednesday versus previous close 70.20.

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-share-market-live-updates-bse-nse-sensex-jumps-over-200-points-at-open-nifty-above-10850-infosys-up-3-3367691.html

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Opening Bell

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Closing Bell: Sensex ends 155 points higher, Nifty fails to hold 10,800; pharma cracks

Market at Close Equity benchmarks have ended the day on a positive note, though off their high points. The Nifty closed below 10,800-mark.

Among sectors, all but three sectors ended the session in the green. In the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap index closed around flat line. 

At the close of market hours, the Sensex was up 155.06 points or 0.43% at 35850.16, while the Nifty was higher by 44.40 points or 0.41% at 10771.80. The market breadth was negative as 1292 shares advanced, against a decline of 1310 shares, while 172 shares were unchanged.

Axis Bank, Tata Motors, and Bharti Infratel gained the most, while Bajaj Auto, Yes Bank, and Indiabulls Housing were the top losers. 

Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-sensex-ends-155-points-higher-nifty-fails-to-hold-10800-pharma-cracks-3359291.html

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MCX Support and Resistance Levels

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