NCDEX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

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Weak rupee unlikely to hit your MF portfolio. Allocate 60% in equity-related funds

Rising bond yields are already suggesting that RBI might raise rates again in its next policy meeting by another 25 bps.

Are you worried about your mutual fund portfolio taking a hit because of rupee depreciation? Well, depreciation alone will not impact your portfolio but the rise in bond yields could impact fixed income portfolio and action on specific stocks could lead to lower net asset values (NAV) for specific funds.

But, a well-diversified portfolio is unlikely to get impacted by rupee depreciation, suggest experts. The currency touched a new low of Rs 72.67 versus USD on Monday and experts feel that it could touch levels around Rs 73/USD in the near term.

The stock market is prone to volatility as it is impacted by the macro-micro environment in which a stock operates. Rising bond yields are already suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might raise rates again in its next policy meeting by another 25 bps.


“In this case, optimal diversification and adopting a portfolio approach can help an investor reduce the volatility of the stock market. There is upside risk to inflation forecast. In such a scenario, rupee depreciation along with elevated crude adds risks of further rates hike by RBI. Rising bond yields is already hinting possibility of a further rate hike,” Vineeta Sharma, HOR at Narnolia Financial Advisors told Moneycontrol.


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Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/weak-rupee-unlikely-to-hit-your-mf-portfolio-allocate-60-in-equity-related-funds-2936861.html

Opening Bell (11 Sep 2018)

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Indian rupee at day's high around 71.74 per dollar

Yesterday the Indian currency settled at 71.99 per US dollar, down 24 paise from the previous close of 71.75, after hitting a fresh record low of 72.10 intraday Thursday.

Indian rupee is trading near the day's high at around 71.74 per dollar. It recovered 29 paise from the day's low point of 72.03 after its opened marginally higher at 71.95 per dollar.

Yesterday the Indian currency settled at 71.99 per US dollar, down 24 paise from the previous close of 71.75, after hitting a fresh record low of 72.10 intraday Thursday.

Rupee depreciated by about 13 percent so far this year, 5 percent in last one month and 3 percent in last seven straight sessions. It has fallen from 70 to 72 a dollar in 21 sessions.

The consistent dollar demand pulled the currency down to an all-time low against the greenback, but it managed to get some support from supply of dollar by Reserve Bank of India. Also, stability in currencies of emerging markets like Argentinian peso and Turkish lira helped the recovery.


Deepak Jasani, Head – Retail Research at HDFC Securities said, "Going by the current momentum, levels of 72.50 look likely in the next few days before the RBI signals its unease with the speed of the fall.""With GDP going beyond 8 percent, the pressure on rupee should get reduced. We do not see rupee going down below Rs 73 soon, said Akash Jain, Vice President - Equity Research, Ajcon Global.

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Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/indian-rupee-at-days-high-around-71-74-per-dollar-2927111.html

Rupee recovery, rally in index heavyweights help Nifty reclaim 11,500; Sensex up over 200 points

Among sectors, banks lost some sheen in the last half hour, but strength in pharmaceuticals, energy, and infrastructure names helped the bulls to hold their grip on the market.

Sentiment on the market moved in tandem with the rupee’s movement on Thursday. A recovery in the Indian rupee, after it fell to a record low of 72.10/USD, helped the market end the day in green as well. The Nifty reclaimed 11,500-mark and ended above the threshold.

Along with the currency, rally in index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries and HDFC twins helped indices see a strong surge as well. Among sectors, banks lost some sheen in the last half hour, but strength in pharmaceuticals, energy, and infrastructure names helped the bulls to hold their grip on the market.

Having said that, investors will make a note of rupee’s movements ahead, with the currency hitting 72 per dollar again at the time of market coming to close.

At the close of market hours, the Sensex ended higher by 224.50 points or 0.59% at 38242.81, while the Nifty closed higher by 59.90 points or 0.52% at 11536.90. The market breadth is positive as 1,582 shares advanced, against a decline of 1,105 shares, while 191 shares were unchanged.

Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Cipla were the top gainers, while Maruti Suzuki, Yes Bank, Zee Entertainment and Hindalco lost the most.


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Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-rupee-recovery-rally-in-index-heavyweights-help-nifty-reclaim-11500-sensex-up-over-200-points-2922381.html

Closing Bell (6 Sep 2018)

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Rupee breaches 72/$, but pain may not be over: Analysts

Going by the current momentum, levels of 72.50 look likely in the next few days before the RBI signals its unease with the speed of the fall, said Deepak Jasani, Head – Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

The Indian currency has depreciated nearly 5 percent in the last one month and is down almost 13 percent so far in the year 2018. The 10-year govt bond yields expanded above 8 percent to touch its highest level since November 2014.

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The 10-year G-Sec Yield in India has been inching up on fear of more rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). We have seen around Rs 2,700-crore outflow from the Indian debt market in September 2018 so far.


We have collated views from various experts as to where the rupee is headed from here on:

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Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/shocker-rupee-breaches-72-but-pain-may-not-be-over-analysts-2923861.html