Buckle up! Stay light as Nifty50 could retest 9,800-10,000 levels in medium term

The momentum-based oscillators are in ‘sell’ on near and on medium-term basis. Given the sharp fall over the past few weeks, the market is expected to remain weak on a medium-term basis, Arun Kumar, Market Strategist, Reliance Securities, said in an interview to

Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.

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Closing Bell: Sensex plunges 792 pts, rupee hits 74/$ as RBI holds rates; Infosys, TCS up

The MPC’s decision to stand pat is a clear signal that inflation remains the anchor of monetary policy. Interest rates will not be used to manage the currency, but the MPC will respond to the inflationary consequences of depreciation.

Currently, although higher oil prices and a weaker currency add to near-term cost pressures, the RBI acknowledged the expected inflation undershoot on lower food inflation and tighter financial conditions. The pause also gives it a chance to wait and observe the impact of the hikes already delivered. Lastly, the change in its stance indicates the MPC remains ready to hike, if inflation pressures become more adverse.

Overall, given our view of an impending growth slowdown due to a significant tightening of financial conditions, 50bp in cumulative hikes already in place and the need for RBI to allow lagged effects of policy transmission to become apparent, we expect rates to remain unchanged over our forecast horizon.

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MCX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL

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INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE (05 Oct 2018)

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Sensex sinks 900 pts; rupee hits 74/$ for first time as RBI holds rates

The market is not showing any sign of recovery as it has been falling sharply for third consecutive session.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 465.99 points or 1.32 percent to 34,703.17, taking total fall to more than 4,000 points from its record high touched on August 28.

The 50-share NSE Nifty fell 185.20 points or 1.75 percent to 10,414.10.

RBI said while the projections of inflation for 2018-19 and Q1FY20 have been revised downwards from the August resolution, its trajectory is projected to rise above the August 2018 print.

The outlook is clouded with several uncertainties like minimum support price announced by the government, rising crude oil prices, volatility in global financial markets, sharp rise in input costs, fiscal slippage if any and staggered impact of HRA revision by the state governments.

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Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-bse-nse-sensex-sinks-900-pts-rupee-hits-74-for-first-time-as-rbi-holds-rates-3015141.html

Indian rupee recovers from record low of 73.81 per dollar

The Indian rupee seen some recovery after it slipped to a fresh record low of 73.81 per dollar on the back of rising global oil prices, and concerns over current account deficit and capital outflows.

Rupee recovered 18 paise from its all-time low of 73.81 per dollar, while it is trading lower by 29 paise at around 73.63 versus previous close 73.34 per dollar.


Yesterday the rupee ended at record closing low, down by 43 paise versus Monday’s closing 72.91 per dollar.

During the day, the rupee slipped to its all-time low of 73.42 per dollar as crude oil prices breached the USD 85 per barrel mark, leading to huge outflows of cash.

VK Sharma, Head Private Client Group & Capital Market Strategy at HDFC Securities said, "RBI refused to open a special window for oil marketing companies, lead to the sharp decline in rupee towards the new all-time low of 73.41 against the dollar. Other emerging currencies also weakened as dollar continue to strengthen."

"Oil prices has been sustaining on expectations of tighter supply once US sanctions start targeting Iran's petroleum industry from next month. India's central bank is widely expected to raise its policy repo rate at a review on Friday in a bid to slow the rupee's decline and rein in inflationary pressures, "he added.

Rupee fell to fresh record low levels after consolidating in a broad range of 73.20 and 73.70 levels for the last few sessions. On the domestic front, market participants will be keeping an eye on RBI policy statement and expectation is that the central bank could raise rates by 25bps, said Motilal Oswal.

Surge in global crude oil prices and weakness in the rupee could push the officials to raise rates, but importantly focus will be on whether central bank raises its inflation forecast for the latter half of the year. At the same time, market participants will also be looking forward to taking cues on how the central bank looks to tackle the liquidity issue.

In a view to support the rupee, yesterday, RBI permitted oil marketing companies to borrow as much as USD 10 billion through External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and waived off hedging requirements to relieve the pressure on the rupee. Today, USD-INR pair is expected to quote in the range of 73.60 and 74.20, it added.

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Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/indian-rupee-recovers-from-record-low-73-81-per-dollar-3011151.html

Closing Bell: Bloodbath on Dalal Street; Sensex plunges 806 pts, Nifty ends tad below 10,600

Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp and Reliance Industries were the biggest losers among Nifty50 stocks, sinking 6-9 percent.

Benchmark indices closed sharply lower on Wednesday with the Sensex losing 806.47 points or 2.24 percent to 35,169.16 as all sectoral indices ended in the red.

The 50-share NSE Nifty plunged 259 points or 2.39 percent to 10,599.30. More than two shares declined for every share rising on the BSE.

Gainers and Losers

HPCL, BPCL and IOC were biggest losers among Nifty50 stocks, falling more than 11 percent after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the government cut excise duty on petrol & diesel by Rs 1.50 per litre. "Oil marketing companies will absorb Re 1 per litre w.r.t petrol & diesel prices."

Reliance Industries (6.87 percent) and Eicher Motors (5.71 percent) were other losers while ICICI Bank bucked the trend, rising 4.21 percent followed by Axis Bank (up 2.45 percent), UltraTechCement (2.16 percent), Bharti Infratel (1.77 percent) and Yes Bank (up 1.06 percent).

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Source:https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/closing-bell-bloodbath-on-dalal-street-sensex-plunges-806-pts-nifty-ends-tad-below-10600-3011131.html